US x China tariff agreement by November 1?

Resolution Criterion The market will resolve to “Yes” if, on or before November 1 2025 at 23:59 UTC, the United States and China publicly announce or officially sign a tariff-related agreement that includes one or more of the following: Reduction, suspension, or elimination of existing import/export tariffs between the two countries. A new trade deal or framework explicitly addressing tariff terms or duties. The announcement must come from credible official or media sources, such as: Official statements from the White House, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), or China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). Verified coverage from at least two major international outlets, e.g. Reuters, Bloomberg, Financial Times, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal. Outcomes Yes → A qualifying agreement or formal announcement is made by Nov 1 2025. No → No such announcement or agreement is made by the deadline. Clarifications & Edge Cases Mere negotiations, rumors, or “talks resumed” statements do not count. The agreement must be mutually confirmed by both governments, or reported as such by credible outlets citing official confirmation. Partial or sector-specific deals (e.g., on semiconductors or agriculture) count only if they explicitly include tariff adjustments. If an agreement is announced before Nov 1 but is later denied by either side before the deadline, the market resolves to No. Resolution Source Hierarchy Primary → Official U.S. and Chinese government releases. Secondary → Major verified media outlets listed above. Any ambiguity not covered will be resolved at Predchain’s discretion, prioritizing consensus among top-tier sources.